🔗 Share this article From Reluctant Admiration to Disquiet: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro. A unexpected operation against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the country's president. Within a day, the foreign force announces its intention to govern for an indefinite period. That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for four years.” These observations have fed a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war. Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote. A Network Unravels For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington. However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach. “For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.” Focus on the Main Front Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with Trump on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded. Tangible Costs and New Threats Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, determines results. “The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”
A unexpected operation against the capital city under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the country's president. Within a day, the foreign force announces its intention to govern for an indefinite period. That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his full-scale invasion of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's longtime partner Nicolás Maduro, who now faces trial in New York. Official Outrage and Private Thoughts In public, Russian officials have expressed fury, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a feeling of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once imagined, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition. “The operation was carried out competently,” wrote the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'military campaign' was supposed to unfold: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for four years.” These observations have fed a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine turned into a protracted and deadly war. Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention appeared to be. “Within 24 hours, Trump arrested Maduro and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she wrote. A Network Unravels For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Cuba and Iran – in the hope of forging a new axis capable of standing up to Washington. However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever believed Moscow would intervene meaningfully. Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Syria's leader to an ever-more fragile Iran – exposing the limits of the Kremlin's reach. “For Russia, the situation is deeply uncomfortable,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any tangible support to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.” Focus on the Main Front Analysts point to a deeper strategic consideration. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with Trump on that issue far outweighs the destiny of Caracas. “The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a far more consequential issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's sympathies towards Caracas, it is not going to jeopardize a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded. Tangible Costs and New Threats Still, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government takes power in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan military's equipment, including sophisticated weaponry supplied by Russia. This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems provided during late 2025. Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered. A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is crude oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could push global prices lower, endangering one of Russia's key revenue streams. “If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.” A Bleak Silver Lining? Still, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, determines results. “The US administration is tough and cynical in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Dmitry Medvedev with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”