Foreign Office Cautioned Against Military Action to Overthrow Robert Mugabe

Recently released documents reveal that the Foreign Office cautioned against British military intervention to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, Robert Mugabe, in 2004, advising it was not considered a "viable option".

Policy Papers Show Deliberations on Handling a "Depressingly Healthy" Dictator

Policy papers from the then Prime Minister's government show officials considered options on how best to deal with the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old leader, who declined to leave office as the country descended into turmoil and financial collapse.

Faced with Mugabe's Zanu-PF party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential options.

Policy of Isolation Deemed Ineffective

Officials agreed that the UK's policy of isolating Mugabe and forging an international agreement for change was failing, having failed to secure support from influential African states, notably the then South African president, Thabo Mbeki.

Courses considered in the documents were:

• "Attempt to remove Mugabe by military means";
• "Go for tougher UK measures" such as freezing assets and closing the UK embassy; or
• "Re-open dialogue", the approach supported by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.

"We know from Afghanistan, Iraq and Yugoslavia that altering a government and/or its bad policies is exceedingly difficult from the outside."

The FCO paper dismissed military action as not a "realistic option," and warned that "The only candidate for leading such a armed intervention is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be willing to do so".

Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles

It warned that military intervention would cause significant losses and have "considerable implications" for British people in Zimbabwe.

"Barring a major humanitarian and political disaster – resulting in massive violence, significant exodus of refugees, and regional instability – we judge that no African state would support any attempts to remove Mugabe by force."

The document adds: "Nor do we judge that any other European, Commonwealth or western partner (including the US) would authorise or participate in military intervention. And there would be no legal grounds for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would fail to obtain."

Playing the Longer Game Advocated

The Prime Minister's advisor, a senior official, warned him that Zimbabwe "will be a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's presidency of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been ruled out, "it is likely necessary that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-engage with Mugabe.

Blair seemed to concur, noting: "We should work out a way of revealing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF ahead of this election and then subsequently, we could attempt to restart dialogue on the basis of a clear understanding."

The then outgoing ambassador, in his valedictory telegram, had recommended cautious renewed contact with Mugabe, though he understood the Prime Minister "might shudder at the thought given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".

Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a military takeover in 2017, aged 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise the South African president into joining a military coalition to overthrow Mugabe were strongly denied by the former UK premier.