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The historic Ashes series could provide one cause for celebration, but this contest will also see the Australian team celebrate more birthday parties than an arcade in the nineties. Recent addition Jake Weatherald celebrated his 31st a day before the squad was named. Nathan Lyon celebrates 38 the day preceding the Test in Perth. Beau Webster turns 32 just before Brisbane, Usman Khawaja will be 39 on the second day in Adelaide, Josh Hazlewood becomes 35 on the fifth day in Sydney, and Mitchell Starc will be 36 by the time January is over.

Older Team Interest Grows

For a couple of years there has been growing curiosity with the average age of this side and particularly the bowling attack. It is unusual to have almost every player near a Test team being above thirty, except for novelty-sized mascot Cameron Green and occasional visitor Sam Konstas. But it didn’t logically follow that greater age was a problem: a Test team boasting a four-man attack with 1,568 wickets between them is scarcely a disadvantage, and it makes sense that all of those bowlers are deep into their careers.

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Perhaps what really highlighted the discussion is that the backup bowlers over that period, Scott Boland and Michael Neser, are also well into their thirties. Younger bowlers have floated into teams – Lance Morris, Jhye Richardson – before disappearing for years with injuries, meaning there has been no clear line of succession.

Change Forced by Setbacks

So far, that hasn't been an issue, as the core four plus Boland have continued backing up. Any team knows that having a group of same-generation players might mean a group of simultaneous retirements, but so far transition has remained hypothetical: a train that would certainly be coming round the bend when she comes, but one that hadn’t yet steamed into view.

Now, abruptly, transition is upon them, imposed on this Aussie team in the space of a short period. The back injury to Pat Cummins was taken in stride: he would probably only sit out the first Test, was the Cricket Australia view, and as the first-change bowler behind Starc and Hazlewood, he could comfortably be replaced by Boland.

But now that Hazlewood has gone down with a hamstring injury, the team balance experiences a much more significant change with two key bowlers missing rather than a single one. Cummins and Hazlewood as the two tight-line right-armers give the stability and precision that allows Starc’s left-arm speed and movement to be used more as a attacking option. Losing both of them means a major adjustment in the balance of the team. Boland taking the new ball is not unusual in his first-class career, but he has been so effective in Tests coming on after seven or eight overs of early pressure. Now he’ll likely have to be the opening bowler.

Debutant Faces Expectations

Behind him will come Brendan Doggett, who at thirty-one years of age himself won’t be an intimidated youngster, but he might become an overawed 31-year-old. A packed stadium, partly English, for the opening Test of a eagerly awaited Ashes series will not make for an easy debut, no matter how many newspaper profiles describe him as relaxed. He could be brought onto the field on a banana lounge and still be nervous.

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Who knows, it might all go swimmingly for this revamped bowling lineup. It might not work out. What is notable is how quickly Australia have moved from the certainty of Starc, Lyon, Cummins, Hazlewood to the uncertainty of Starc, Lyon, mumble mumble. Who knows what further injuries the opening match may bring. It's unknown whether Cummins will be good to go for the Brisbane Test, and good to back up after that match, given how tricky stress fractures can be. Who knows how long Hazlewood might be out, with a history of getting injured early in series and a pattern of minor injuries becoming longer layoffs.

Outlook Unclear

The back half of the contest may witness the main four bowlers back together and all performing well. Or it might experience transition setting in much sooner than the stretch goal of 2027 in the UK. Not through Neser, who is seemingly the next option and could be a excellent pink-ball Brisbane choice, but beyond that with options uncertain. Sean Abbott was in the original team, though he’s now also hurt and has never played a Test match. Richardson has just had his injury-prone arm repaired, and this format is no place for gradually starting one’s work. After them lies the real unknown, and amid it all a chance for the opposing side. You can hear that train a-coming, coming around the bend, and England hasn't seen the success since they can't recall when.